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That is to say that the MFI indicator is creating lower peaks instead, creating a bearish divergence signal. In order to keep things as simple as possible, we will illustrate a trading strategy that uses some very basic criteria for entering and exiting trades. This money flow index strategy utilizes two main components. The first of which is an overbought or oversold condition as presented by the MFI indicator. The second condition that will be incorporated into this strategy will be the presence of a hammer candlestick pattern for a buy signal, and a shooting star candlestick pattern for a sell signal.
This is a mean reversion strategy that takes advantage of short-term price extremes. For a buy set up, the following conditions must be met: The market must not be trending strongly and should instead be trading in a relatively range bound manner. The MFI indicator must register of reading of 20 or below. Within three bars before or after the MFI indicator registers a reading of 20 or below, a hammer candlestick pattern must appear on the price chart. Upon the above conditions being met, a market order to buy would be placed immediately following the completion of the hammer candle.
The stop loss will be placed at a distance that equals one half the entire length of the hammer candle. The target or exit point on the trade will be measured using the length of the entire hammer candle. More specifically, the target price will be the level equivalent to the height of the hammer candle. For a sell set up, the following conditions must be met: The market must not be trending strongly and should instead be trading in a relatively range bound manner.
The MFI indicator must register a reading of 80 or above. Within three bars before or after the MFI indicator registers a reading of 80 or above, a shooting star candlestick pattern must appear on the price chart. Upon the above conditions being met, a market order to sell would be placed immediately following the completion of the Shooting Star candle. The stop loss will be placed at a distance that equals one half the entire length of the shooting star candle. The target or exit point on the trade will be measured using the length of the entire shooting star candle.
More specifically, the target price will be the level equivalent to the height of the Shooting Star candle. For this example, we will be using the daily chart of Netflix, which can be seen below. As we can see, the price of Netflix was oscillating back and forth in a relatively range bound manner. As such, the first condition for this set up has been met. That is to say that we can confirm that the market is not trending strongly, but instead displaying relatively range bound price behavior.
Toward the right side of the chart, we can see that the MFI stock indicator, which is shown below the price action, was moving steadily lower. Eventually, it registered a reading which was below the oversold threshold of And so, with this occurrence our second condition for a buy set up has been met.
Now we must confirm the presence of a specific candlestick within three bars of the MFI oversold reading. Keep in mind this can be either before or after the actual MFI oversold condition being registered. If we look at the price chart once again, we can see that a hammer candlestick occurred concurrently with the MFI oversold reading, thus our third condition for a long trade set up has been met.
With all of the above conditions now being met, we would place a market order to buy immediately following the completion of the hammer candle. The stoploss would be placed at a distance that would equal one half the length of the hammer candle itself.
The take profit exit would be set at a distance that is equivalent to the length of the hammer candle. The length of the hammer candle can be seen by referencing the lower bracket next to the hammer candle. The upper bracket represents a one-to-one relationship of the hammer candle projected upward, which would serve as the take profit exit point. Notice that prices move higher immediately following the buy entry into this trade.
We were in no jeopardy of the price stopping us out, and we were able to successfully exit this trade with a profit within two days. The SPY ETF is one of the most liquid instruments in the stock market, and because it is a broad market index ETF, it is an excellent candidate for applying this strategy. In fact, ETFs will generally perform better with this mean reversion strategy than individual stocks. So that is something that traders and investors should keep in mind when employing this MFI system in the market.
You will find the MFI technical indicator below the price action in the lower pane. Looking at the price action we can see that there was a fairly sluggish price movement higher, which was followed by a sharper price move lower. As such, there is no clear overwhelming trend in the market at this time, and we can say that the market is trading in a fairly range bound manner up and down. This fulfills the initial condition of this strategy as we can confirm there is no clear dominant trend in the market during this time.
Towards the far right of the price chart, we can see that as prices were moving lower, the MFI indicator was also moving lower with the price action. Eventually, the MFI indicator reached a level below the 20 threshold before bouncing out of that area. Soon afterwards, the MFI indicator dipped below the 20 threshold once again, but this time, after two candles following the MFI oversold reading, we can see that a hammer candle formed on the price chart. As such, we would prepare to buy this market immediately following the close of the hammer candle.
You can see where that buy entry occurs by referring to the price chart. Also take note of the black dashed line which represents the stoploss level. Use negative or positive numbers depending on whether the period was up or down see step above. Calculate the money flow ratio by adding up all the positive money flows over the last 14 periods and dividing it by the negative money flows for the last 14 periods.
Continue doing the calculations as each new period ends, using only the last 14 periods of data. One of the primary ways to use the Money Flow Index is when there is a divergence. A divergence is when the oscillator is moving in the opposite direction of price. This is a signal of a potential reversal in the prevailing price trend. For example, a very high Money Flow Index that begins to fall below a reading of 80 while the underlying security continues to climb is a price reversal signal to the downside.
Conversely, a very low MFI reading that climbs above a reading of 20 while the underlying security continues to sell off is a price reversal signal to the upside. Traders also watch for larger divergences using multiple waves in the price and MFI. This could foreshadow a decline in price. The overbought and oversold levels are also used to signal possible trading opportunities.
Moves below 10 and above 90 are rare. Traders watch for the MFI to move back above 10 to signal a long trade, and to drop below 90 to signal a short trade. Other moves out of overbought or oversold territory can also be useful. For example, when an asset is in an uptrend , a drop below 20 or even 30 and then a rally back above it could indicate a pullback is over and the price uptrend is resuming. The same goes for a downtrend. A short-term rally could push the MFI up to 70 or 80, but when it drops back below that could be the time to enter a short trade in preparation for another drop.