Forex history data 2022 presidential election

Amendments made at the end of a month can be used for reporting purposes for transactions occurring during the remaining month s in the quarter. Example: A currency amended on April 30th will appear on two lines of the report. One line for the original March 31st published rate and another line for the amended rate effective April 30th which would be valid for reporting purposes for May and June transactions.

Amendments will also be issued to reflect the establishment of new foreign currencies. To ensure all reports are translated at uniform exchange rates, all U. Longer-term Drivers Interest rate differentials and capital flows Australia's interest rate differential measures the difference between interest rates in Australia and those in other economies.

The interest rate differential is a key driver of the demand for, and supply of, Australian dollars. It is also an important driver of capital flows, which measure the money that flows into, and out of, Australia for investment purposes. See Explainer: The Balance of Payments. For the Australian dollar, the focus is typically on the difference between Australian interest rates and those in the major advanced economies, such as the United States US , Europe and Japan.

Because the interest rate differential is a key driver of exchange rates, the RBA's monetary policy decisions play a key role in influencing the exchange rate. See Explainer: The Transmission of Monetary Policy and Explainer: Bonds and the Yield Curve for a discussion of how monetary policy affects interest rates and the exchange rate. All else being equal, an increase in Australian interest rates contributes to the exchange rate being higher than otherwise.

If Australian interest rates increase relative to interest rates in the US, Europe or Japan, Australian assets that pay interest such as government bonds become more attractive to foreign investors, as well as Australian investors that may invest overseas. This is because these assets are now paying a higher interest rate than before. If foreign investors purchase more Australian assets, more money flows into Australia.

This leads to increased demand for Australian dollars. In addition, if Australian or foreign investors prefer to hold more Australian assets than otherwise rather than purchasing overseas assets , less money flows out of Australia. This leads to decreased supply of Australian dollars. Both increased demand and reduced supply of Australian dollars support an appreciation in the Australian dollar exchange rate.

In contrast, a decline in Australian interest rates contributes to the exchange rate being lower than otherwise. When Australian interest rates decline, relative to interest rates in other advanced economies, Australian assets become less attractive for foreign investors and Australian investors. Demand for Australian assets declines, leading to a decrease in demand for Australian dollars and an increase in supply.

Both of these factors lead to a depreciation. While the interest rate differential is an important factor for capital flows and the Australian dollar, other factors also matter for investors when deciding how to allocate their investments, such as the risk of investing in Australia relative to other economies. The terms of trade and commodity prices There has been a close relationship between the terms of trade and the value of the Australian dollar over a long period of time.

The terms of trade measures the ratio of export prices to import prices. In general, an increase in the terms of trade is associated with an appreciation of the Australian dollar, while a decline in the terms of trade is associated with a depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Commodity prices have a large influence on the terms of trade commodities are goods such as iron ore, natural gas and agricultural products. This is because commodities account for a large share of Australia's exports and so movements in commodity prices result in movements in export prices. For example, an increase in the price of iron ore typically leads to higher export prices and an increase in the terms of trade.

This is associated with an increase in demand for Australian dollars and an appreciation. Commodity prices and the terms of trade can also affect the Australian economy through increased investment. When commodity prices increase, exporters may decide to invest in expanding their production capacity to take advantage of higher export prices. This investment has typically been funded from money capital flowing into Australia from overseas, which supports demand for Australian dollars and can lead to an appreciation.

During the mining investment boom, a very large increase in commodity prices from the mids through to led to large inflows of foreign investment to help expand the production capacity in Australia's resources sector.

This reflected the increased demand for Australian dollars and the more positive economic outlook for Australia relative to other countries. See Explainer: Australia and the Global Economy — The Terms of Trade Boom for a detailed discussion of the mining boom and how a higher terms of trade affects the exchange rate and the Australian economy.

International trade Australian dollars are also bought and sold to facilitate the international trade of goods and services. When Australians export or sell goods or services to an overseas buyer, the overseas buyer purchases Australian dollars to pay the exporter assuming the export is paid for in Australian dollars.

As a result, an increase in the demand for Australian exports also increases demand for Australian dollars in the foreign exchange market and an appreciation of the Australian dollar. Conversely, when Australians import or buy goods and services from an overseas seller, the Australian importer sells Australian dollars to obtain foreign currency to pay the overseas seller.

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Partisan seat swings in midterm elections are consistently correlated with two factors: The level of public approval of the incumbent President. In this sense the midterm is taken as a referendum on the incumbent president. The number of seats each house of Congress up for election controlled by the President's party. As the number of seats to defend increases, the greater the number of seats lost. Those cases involved wide variation in seat loss or gain.

The average was a loss of 4. From , the incumbent party has on average defended seats in the House and 17 in the Senate. Presidents defending numbers of seats similar to those at stake in have lost 8 and gained 18 in the House Eisenhower and G. What about the economy, stupid? Some observers expect a negative effect for Biden from recent inflation, but that may be offset by positive news on jobs.

For this analysis, we examined inflation CPI and nonfarm jobs growth. Both variables have sometimes seemed important in forecasting presidential elections. These figures are among the three highest midterm-election-year observations in the period Inflation is not so great, clocking in recently at 8.

That's the second highest reading in a midterm year for the years we examine exceeded by It is perhaps surprising that neither variable is strongly correlated with midterm seat gains or losses. Inflation is weakly negative for House seats, but has a zero correlation for the Senate. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out or exit the site if you wish. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website.

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